2020 State Elections
With around 20 state legislative races worth a watch in 2020, many projections involved increases to the Democratic supermajorities in the House and Senate. Although Senate Democrats did pick up one seat overlapping Kane and Kendall counties (Senate District 25), House Democrats netted a loss of one seat in Lake County (House District 51).
While Senate Republicans attempted to go on the "attack" in the Peoria Senate race held by Democrats, they are also had to heavily defend the above noted Kane/Kendall County Senate race held by Republicans...Democrats gained one Senate seat (Senate District 25).
While House Republicans were arguably on the attack in around five races, three in southern Illinois and at least two in the near and far Chicago suburbs, they also had to defend around ten races north of I-80...Democrats had opportunities to pick up a few seats in the areas of at least Plainfield, Palatine, and Naperville, but their overall success was dependent on protecting incumbents overlapping similar Chicago suburban areas with two potential Democrat losses in southern Illinois. Even though House Democrats were unable to defend an incumbent in Lake County (House District 51), House Democrats did extend their reach beyond the Chicago suburbs and into races in McHenry and Winnebago counties.
The significant financial advantage of Democrats over Republicans in state legislative races is undeniable; however, strategic use of resources still remains essential.
Of top tier legislative races, the two races with the highest Democratic spending actually resulted in losses, see House Districts 45 and 111. Even when Republicans finance a candidate more than the Democrats, the result was still dependent on other factors, see House District 81.
And although electoral factors may involve suburban democratic versus rural republican trends, this election cycle presented more nuanced preferences in the Chicago suburbs, see House Districts 41, 45, 51, and 66.
