Election Resources
2022 Candidate Filing Overview
There are as many as 314 state legislator options for Illinois primary voters this summer…
Although a higher number of state legislative candidates tend to appear on the ballot in new census map years, 2022 numbers were below the last census map cycle ten years ago and more in line with the last mid-term cycle even with 20 more state Senate seats up for election this year than the 2018 mid-term.
Political Gerrymandering Overview
While political gerrymandering was a reality in the making of new legislative maps for the 2022 election cycle, there appear to be nearly 20 competitive state legislative races and up to four competitive congressional races between Democrats and Republicans.
Another factor to consider in evaluating potentially competitive races is the predictability of a party preference shift against the incumbent president in mid-term elections.
"Overall, in the post-World War II era, the president’s party has performed an average of 7.4 points worse in the House popular vote in midterm elections than it did two years prior. Therefore, since Democrats won the House popular vote by 3.0 points in 2020, Republicans can roughly expect to win it by 4.4 points in 2022 if history is any guide."
(FiveThirtyEight - January 3, 2022)
Republicans hold five Congressional seats going into the 2022 election cycle, but were guaranteed only three seats based on the generic party preference of voters in newly drawn Congressional districts; however, up to four new districts may be competitive between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 election cycle.
Congressional "incumbent" districts with Democrat voter party preferences near 50%:
District 6: D+3.65% - Sean Casten (D) & Marie Newman (D)
District 11: D+4.46% - Bill Foster (D)
District 14: D+7.19% - Lauren Underwood (D)
District 17: D+5.41% - Open
State Legislative Districts
House Democrats hold a supermajority with 73 of 118 House seats going into the 2022 election cycle and newly drawn legislative maps arguably support Democrat voter preferences in 79 House districts (click here) while Senate Democrats hold an even larger supermajority percentage with 41 of 59 Senate seats going into the 2022 election cycle and newly drawn legislative maps similarly support Democratic voter preferences in 41 Senate districts (click here).
Although newly drawn legislative maps certainly support the preservation of a Democrat majority in both the Illinois House and Senate, Republicans may be able to utilize the predictability of a party preference shift against the incumbent president in mid-term elections by challenging Democrats in four House districts and two Senate districts, and protecting Republican "incumbents" in nine House districts and three Senate districts.
Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.
State "incumbent" districts with voter party preferences near 50%:
House Distrist 20: D+3.18% - Brad Stephens (R)
House Distrist 45: D+0.09% - Deanne Mazzochi (R)
House Distrist 47: R+4.40% - Amy Grant (R)
House Distrist 48: R+2.46% - Open (Seth Lewis-R filed for Senate 24th District)
House Distrist 51: R+4.01% - Chris Bos (R)
House Distrist 66: D+2.21% - Suzanne Ness (D)
House Distrist 68: D+2.12% - Dave Vella (D)
House Distrist 71: R+3.66% - Dan Swanson (R)
House Distrist 79: R+0.37% - Jackie Haas (R)
House District 83: D+6.78% - Keith Wheeler (R)
House Distrist 91: D+1.92% - Open (no resident incumbent)
House District 97: D+5.51% - Open (Mark Batinick-R not running)
House Distrist 104: R+4.85% - Mike Marron (R)
House Distrist 111: R+4.51% - Amy Elik (R)
House Distrist 112: D+4.62% - Katie Stuart (D)
Senate District 24: R+3.43% - Seth Lewis (R)
Senate District 38: R+4.65% - Sue Rezin (R)
Senate District 41: R+2.01% - John Curran (R)
Senate District 48: D+0.55% - Doris Turner (D) & Sandy Hamilton (R)
Senate District 56: D+0.05% - Kris Tharp (D)
Intra-Party Conflicts
Beyond the politics of Democrat vs. Republican that quickly becomes the theme after a primary, there are also internal party conflicts that will be playing out between the primary and general election. For Democrats, the Governor appears to again be attempting to influence leadership of the state party operations, and for Republicans, the establishment is being threatened by factions ranging from the right-wing to the Trump-endorsed candidates.
Following the final state central committee results, we first saw Democrats wage their internal battle with weighted votes from each congressional district, which ranged from 2% to 9% just last year in the election of Robin Kelly as Democratic Party of Illinois chair with just 51.7% of the weighted votes (note: weighted votes for the now 17 congressional districts will be determined based on the 2022 Democratic primary ballots cast in each congressional district).
New Realities for Some "Incumbents"
New census maps mean new districts for every "incumbent" running for re-election. While Democrats naturally drew maps that favored more Democrat districts, most but not all Democrat incumbents in moderate districts may feel safer. And while some House Republicans may be insulated from defeat due in part to a mid-term election with a Democrat president, others may not be so lucky.
Here's a look at 34 arguably moderate districts with a major party preference within a ten percentage point spread, comparing the incumbent's last win vs. the district's party preference.
Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.
June 28th Illinois Primary Snapshots
While general election matchups between Democrat and Republican candidates deserve plenty of attention, many state and federal districts' representation are decided by the primary election. Below are snapshots of primary races to watch with summary references to some relevant background, campaign affiliations, endorsements, and support:
Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.
Congressional District Primaries to Watch
Congressional District 1: D+43.73%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Bobby Rush not running)
Total Pop: 753,677
Black: 49.66%
Asian: 1.97%
Hispanic: 9.21%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Jacqueline Collins - State Senator; support from Auburn Gresham neighborhood Rev. Pfleger, Sen. Pres. Harmon, Association of Letter Carriers union
Pat Dowell - Chicago Ward 3 Alderwoman; support from former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun
Karin Norington-Reaves - Chicago Cook Workforce Partnership CEO; endorsed by retiring Congressman Bobby Rush
Jonathan Jackson - son of the Rev. Jesse Jackson
Note: other Chicago Democrat candidates include:
Jonathan Swain
Nykea McGriff
Charise Williams
Steven DeJoie
Kirby Birgans
Robert Palmer
Stephany Spaulding
Darius Nix
Chris Butler
Jahmal Cole
Cassandra Goodrum
Michael Thompson
Note: Suburban Democrat candidates include:
Ameena Matthews
Terre Rosner
Marcus Lewis
Howard Spiller
Congressional District 3: D+38.23%
Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)
Total Pop: 753,677
Black: 4.61%
Asian: 6.12%
Hispanic: 47.35%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Delia Ramirez - State Representative; Chuy Garcia Org. support
Gilbert Villegas - Chicago Ward 36 Alderman; Cook County Clerk of Court Iris Martinez & Sen. Cristina Castro endorsements
Iymen Chehade
Juan Aguirre
Congressional District 15: R+34.90%
Filed Incumbents: Rodney Davis-R & Mary Miller-R
Total Pop: 753,677
Black: 2.86%
Asian: 0.74%
Hispanic: 2.81%
Rodney Davis - resident incumbent; County Republican Central Committee Chairs and Illinois Farm Bureau endorsements
Mary Miller - incumbent moving into district; former President Donald Trump endorsement; Club for Growth PAC support
State Senate District Primaries to Watch
Senate District 1: D+53.22%
Total Pop: 217,254
Black: 10.37%
Asian: 13.17%
Hispanic: 37.93%
FIled Incumbent - Tony Munoz
Javier Loera Cervantes - last day filing coordinated with unannounced incumbent retirement
Senate District 2: D+68.15%
Total Pop: 217,315
Black: 10.33%
Asian: 2.38%
Hispanic: 11.76%
Filed Incumbent - Omar Aquino - SEIU endorsement
Jacqueline Baez - Humboldt Park Advisory Council president
Wilmer Maldonado
Wilson Vazquez
Senate District 10: D+18.75%
Total Pop: 217,318
Black: 16.74%
Asian: 1.98%
Hispanic: 13.29%
Filed Incumbent - Rob Martwick- SEIU endorsement
Erin Jones - Chicago Fraternal Order of Police support
Senate District 11: D+38.18%
Total Pop: 217,413
Black: 5.93%
Asian: 9.11%
Hispanic: 40.11%
Filed Incumbent - Steve Landek
Mike Porfirio - last day filing coordinated with unannounced incumbent retirement
Senate District 12: D+68.68%
Total Pop: 217,029
Black: 2.06%
Asian: 2.19%
Hispanic: 9.04%
Filed Incumbent - Celina Villanueva - SEIU endorsement
Javier Yañez - Chicago Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez chief of staff
Senate District 16: D+66.08%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Jacqueline Collins-D filed for Congress 1st District)
Total Pop: 216,908
Black: 16.54%
Asian: 2.90%
Hispanic: 20.14%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Willie Preston - Chicago Ald. Howard Brookins support
LaMont Williams - Cook County Commissioner Bill Lowry chief of staff; SEIU endorsement
Kimberley Egonmwan - WVON Radio host (withdrawn)
Senate District 31: D+11.28%
Total Pop: 217,169
Black: 1.67%
Asian: 6.52%
Hispanic: 25.64%
Sam Yingling - state representative incumbent (Sen. Melinda Bush not running)
Mary Edly-Allen - 2020 incumbent state representative loss
Senate District 35: R+15.12%
Total Pop: 217,156
Black: 19.59%
Asian: 2.21%
Hispanic: 3.02%
Filed Incumbent - Dave Syverson
Eli Nicolosi - Winnebago County Republican Central Committee Chair
Senate District 37: R+17.59%
Total Pop: 217,224
Black: 11.65%
Asian: 7.63%
Hispanic: 21.57%
Filed Incumbent - Win Stoller
Brett Nicklaus - potential endorsements in retaliation to reported support from Sen. Win Stoller (R) of primary challenger to incumbent Mark Luft (R)
Senate District 43: D+17.92%
Filed Incumbent: Open (John Connor-D filed for 12th Circuit Judge)
Total Pop: 217,053
Black: 64.20%
Asian: 0.32%
Hispanic: 16.78%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Rachel Ventura - Will County Board member
Eric Mattson - Joliet firefighter
Senate District 54: R+37.92%
Total Pop: 217,244
Black: 12.47%
Asian: 1.37%
Hispanic: 5.44%
Filed Incumbent - Steve McClure
Don Debolt - Effingham Daily News columnist
State House District Primaries to Watch
House District 4: D+72.54%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Delia Ramirez-D filed for Congress 3rd District)
Total Pop: 108,533
Black: 12.11%
Asian: 2.35%
Hispanic: 56.05%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Lillian Jimenez - Chuy Garcia Org. support; SEIU endorsement
Manuel Jimenez - 26th Ward Cte. Angee Gonzalez support
Hector Villafuerte - Humboldt Park Advisory Council
House District 6: D+75.59%
Total Pop: 108,689
Black: 45.44%
Asian: 5.81%
Hispanic: 30.01%
Filed Incumbent - Sonya Harper - SEIU endorsement
Carolynn Crump - Chicago Fraternal Order of Police support
Steven Williams
House District 13: D+69.63%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Greg Harris-D not running)
Total Pop: 108,814
Black: 11.65%
Asian: 10.08%
Hispanic: 15.15%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Hoan Huynh - Chicago Beyond investor & previously announced 5th Congressional candidate
Sergio Mojica - Chicago Public School principal
Joe Struck - 2021 candidate for 7th Senate District vacancy
Becky Levin - Cook County Sheriff Public Policy Exec. Director
Eileen Dordek - Equality Illinois board member
House District 15: D+23.62%
Total Pop: 108,709
Black: 2.57%
Asian: 21.58%
Hispanic: 15.90%
Filed incumbent - Michael Kelly - SEIU endorsement
Michael Rabbitt - Neighbors for Affordable Housing founder; 2021 announced primary intentions against prior state representative D'Amico
House District 16: D+39.89%
Total Pop: 108,819
Black: 9.45%
Asian: 27.93%
Hispanic: 15.37%
Filed Incumbent - Denise Wang Stoneback
Kevin Olickal - Indo-American Democratic Org. Exec. Director
Naema Abraham - Niles Township District 219 school board president; Niles Township Committeeperson Josita Morita support; reportedly filed in response to incumbent staff hiring of Evanston HR Manager Jennifer Lin
House District 19: D+34.31%
Total Pop: 108,549
Black: 2.24%
Asian: 8.06%
Hispanic: 29.85%
Filed Incumbent - Lindsey LaPointe - SEIU endorsement
Tina Wallace - Illinois Realtors support
Keith Thornton - Chicago 911 dispatcher (Officer Ella French murder); Chicago Fraternal Order of Police support
House District 21: D+36.79%
Total Pop: 108,619
Black: 6.29%
Asian: 2.08%
Hispanic: 55.72%
Filed Incumbent - Michael Zalewski - SEIU endorsement
Abdelnasser Rashid - Democracy Partners consultant; 2018 Cook County Commissioner and 2020 Board of Review losses
House District 21: D+36.79%
Total Pop: 108,619
Black: 6.29%
Asian: 2.08%
Hispanic: 55.72%
Filed Incumbent - Michael Zalewski - SEIU endorsement
Abdelnasser Rashid - Democracy Partners consultant; 2018 Cook County Commissioner and 2020 Board of Review losses
House District 29: D+48.16%
Total Pop: 108,520
Black: 58.30%
Asian: 0.46%
Hispanic: 7.13%
Filed Incumbent - Thaddeus Jones
Monet Wilson - Calumet City Alderperson
House District 32: D+72.27%
Total Pop: 108,536
Black: 48.60%
Asian: 0.90%
Hispanic: 34.44%
Filed Incumbent - Cyril Nichols
Bobby Joe Johnson - 2012 state representative candidate
Safaa Zarzour - Council on American Islamic Relations-Chicago chair
House District 62: D+13.00%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Sam Yingling-D filed for Senate 31st District)
Total Pop: 108,565
Black: 4.27%
Asian: 6.36%
Hispanic: 30.63%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Thomas Maillard - Waukegan Director of Govt. Operations
Terry Wilke - Lake County Board Member
Laura Dias - Grayslake Village Trustee; SEIU endorsement
House District 72: D+16.89%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Mike Halpin-D filed for Senate 36th District)
Total Pop: 108,580
Black: 12.76%
Asian: 2.83%
Hispanic: 16.23%
Dem Primary Candidates:
Jeff Deppe - Rock Island County Board member
Gregg Johnson - 2018 Senate candidate
Thurgood Brooks - 2021 Rock Island mayor candidate
House District 74: R+8.70%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Tom Demmer filed for State Treasurer)
Total Pop: 108,476
Black: 2.78%
Asian: 0.67%
Hispanic: 14.67%
GOP Primary Candidates:
Li Arellano - Dixon Mayor
Bradley Fritts - Lee County Republican Precinct Committee member
House District 77: D+25.13%
Total Pop: 108,704
Black: 2.96%
Asian: 3.18%
Hispanic: 57.93%
Filed Incumbent - Kathleen Willis - SEIU endorsement
Norma Hernandez - Triton College Board trustee; Chuy Garcia Org. support
House District 87: R+36.38%
Filed Incumbent: Open (Keith Sommer-R not running)
Total Pop: 108,650
Black: 1.96%
Asian: 0.66%
Hispanic: 2.57%
GOP Primary Candidates:
Mary Burress - Tazewell County Treasurer
Joe Alexander
William Hauter
House District 90: R+16.55%
Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)
Total Pop: 108,525
Black: 6.16%
Asian: 1.46%
Hispanic: 6.56%
GOP Primary Candidates:
John Cabello - former state representative; lost 2020 election; 8am first day House GOP filing
Mark Szula - Operators Union Local 150 support
House District 93: R+20.90%
Total Pop: 108,708
Black: 2.19%
Asian: 1.13%
Hispanic: 3.80%
Filed Incumbent - Mark Luft
Travis Weaver - reported support from Sen. Win Stoller (R)
House District 95: R+12.90%
Total Pop: 108,730
Black: 8.93%
Asian: 2.96%
Hispanic: 2.62%
Filed Incumbent - Tim Butler
Kent Gray - 2016 Trump Illinois campaign director; 2016 state representative candidate
House District 105: R+30.49%
Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)
Total Pop: 108,658
Black: 1.95%
Asian: 1.76%
Hispanic: 3.65%
GOP Primary Candidates:
Mike Kirkton - Livingston County Board member
Dennis Tipsword - Woodford County chief deputy sheriff
Donald Rients - Benson Fire Protection District president
Kyle Ham - former CEO of Bloomington-Normal Economic Development Council
Census & Remapping the Next Decade
The census results in 2021 posed significant financial, political, and demographic issues for Illinois with billions of dollars in federal funds at stake, congressional, legislative, and municipal districts being merged and redrawn, and minority populations at risk of not being represented.
