Who will be the Dem Candidates that Decide the General Election?
House Districts: HD1 (Incumbent Rep. Aaron Ortiz), HD8 (Incumbent Running for Congress-7), HD12 (Incumbent Running for State Comptroller), HD13 (Incumbent Running for Congress-9), HD34 (Incumbent Not Running), HD40 (Incumbent Rep. Jaime Andrade), HD42 (Incumbent Applied for Judicial Vancancy), HD44 (Incumbent without Party Support), HD84 (Incumbent Running for State Comptroller)
Senate Districts: SD5 (Incumbent Sen. Lakesia Collins), SD6 (Incumbent Sen. Sara Feigenholtz), SD9 (Incumbent Running for Congress-9), SD14 (Incumbent Sen. Emil Jones), SD18 (Incumbent Not Running), SD27 (Incumbent Not Running), SD42 (Incumbent Sen. Linda Holmes)
Congressional Districts: CD2 (Incumbent Running for US Senate), CD7 (Incumbent Not Running), CD8 (Incumbent Running for US Senate), CD9 (Incumbent Not Running)
Who will be the GOP Candidates that Decide the General Election?
House Districts: HD89 (Incumbent Rep. Tony McCombie), HD105 (Incumbent Not Running), HD118 (Incumbent Running for Senate-59)
Senate Districts: SD59 (Incumbent Not Running)
Congressional Districts: no competitive GOP primaries
Will Dems Have a Candidate Good Enough to Flip GOP Control?
House Districts: HD20 (Incumbent Rep. Brad Stephens), HD47 (Incumbent Not Running), HD48 (Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Sanilitro), HD52 (Incumbent Rep. Marty McLaughlin), HD63 (Incumbent Rep. Steve Reick), HD71 (Incumbent Rep. Dan Swanson), HD79 (Incumbent Rep. Jackie Haas), HD104 (Incumbent Rep. Brandun Schweizer), HD111 (Incumbent Rep. Amy Elik), HD114 (Incumbent Rep. Kevin Schmidt)
Senate Districts: SD24 (Incumbent Sen. Seth Lewis), SD26 (Incumbent Sen. Darby Hills), SD33 (Incumbent Not Running), SD41 (Incumbent Sen. John Curran), SD56 (Incumbent Sen. Erica Harriss)
Congressional Districts: none that have any potential to flip
Will GOP Have a Candidate Good Enough to Flip Dem Control?
House Districts: HD51 (Incumbent Running for Senate-26), HD68 (Incumbent Rep. Dave Vella), HD91 (Incumbent Rep. Sharon Chung), HD112 (Incumbent Rep. Katie Stuart)
Senate Districts: SD36 (Incumbent Sen. Mike Halpin)
Congressional Districts: CD17 (Incumbent US Rep. Eric Sorensen)
State House Districts
19 House districts have a party preference of less than 8%, and of those, five districts lean Democrat but are currently held by Republicans: H79 Haas (D+ 0.08%), H48 Sanalitro (D+ 0.38%), H47 Grant (D+ 1.89%), H20 Stephens (D+ 2.58%), H114 Schmidt (D+ 7.34%). Honorable mentions go to at least one as a guaranteed tier one Democrat target, H52 McLaughlin-R (R+ 1.41%), and two others that are vulnerable for Republicans, H63 Reick-R (R+ 1.85%) and H104 Schweizer-R (R+ 1.90%).
State Senate Districts
11 Senate districts have a party preference of less than 8%. While two of those are not up for election this cycle, S34 (Stadelman-D) and S40 (Joyce-D), one of their two House districts may serve as a partial gauge for 2028: H68 (Vella-D) and H79 (Haas-R), respectively. Of the nine “competitive” Senate districts on the ballot this cycle, three districts lean Democrat but are currently held by Republicans: S24 Lewis (D+ 1.10%), S26 Hills (D+ 1.44%), and S41 Curran (D+ 3.78%), with three others having a lean of less than 1% for the incumbent party: S48 Turner (D+ 0.54%), S33 DeWitte (R+ 0.13%), and S56 Harriss (R+ 0.31%).
Congressional Districts
3 Congressional districts have a party preference of less than 8%. Only one is near a truly competitive party preference threshold of +5%, US17 Sorensen (D+ 5.27%), with the other two closer to the +8% cutoff for this review, US6 Casten (D+ 7.28%) and US14 Underwood (D+ 7.95%). Although the congressional races may not have much suspense, the overlapping media buys with traditional Dem and GOP soundbites may have an interesting influence on voter turnout:
US14 Underwood-D (D+ 7.95%) overlapping two potentially competitive state legislative races: S38 Rezin-R (R+ 3.89%), H97 Benton-D (D+ 6.85%)
US06 Casten-D (D+ 7.28%) overlapping five potentially competitive state legislative races: S24 Lewis-R (D+ 1.10%), S41 Curran-R (D+ 3.78%), H47 Grant-R (D+ 1.89%), H45 Deuter-D (D+ 6.58%), H82 La Ha-R (R+ 7.16%)
US17 Sorensen-D (D+ 5.27%) overlapping four potentially competitive state legislative races: S36 Halpin-D (D+ 5.29%), H68 Vella-D (D+ 3.76%), H71 Swanson-R (R+ 5.80%), H91 Chung-D (D+ 2.64%)
There are ten main media markets in Illinois, with some market boundaries that are not entirely within the state:
Chicago
Rockford
Quad Cities
Peoria
Springfield-Decatur-Champaign
Quincy
Terre Haute
St. Louis
Evansville
Paducah
Illinois media markets are targeted in elections through strategic advertising placements. Political campaigns identify key regions, demographics, and political affiliations within the state and utilize various media platforms, such as television, radio, and digital advertising, to reach and engage voters in those specific markets.
Campaigns use data-driven approaches to decide which media markets to prioritize in Illinois elections. They rely on polling data, voter demographics, historical election results, and voter turnout patterns to identify the regions where their message is likely to resonate the most. Additionally, campaigns consider the availability and cost of media advertising in different markets to optimize their resources effectively.
Targeting Illinois media markets can have a significant impact on election outcomes. By focusing their advertising efforts on specific regions, campaigns can reach and persuade voters directly, increasing their chances of success. Effective targeting allows campaigns to tailor their messages to address the concerns and interests of local communities, thereby influencing voter opinions and mobilizing support in key media markets throughout the state.