2022

Election Resources

2022 Illinois Election Map Review

2022 Candidate Filing Overview

There were initially over 300 state legislator options for Illinois primary voters in the summer of 2022.

Although a higher number of state legislative candidates tend to appear on the ballot in new census map years, 2022 numbers were below the last census map cycle ten years ago and more in line with the last mid-term cycle even with 20 more state Senate seats up for election than the 2018 mid-term.

Political Gerrymandering Overview

While political gerrymandering was a reality in the making of new legislative maps for the 2022 election cycle, there appeared to be nearly 20 competitive state legislative races and up to four competitive congressional races between Democrats and Republicans.

Another factor to consider in evaluating potentially competitive races is the predictability of a party preference shift against the incumbent president in mid-term elections.

"Overall, in the post-World War II era, the president’s party has performed an average of 7.4 points worse in the House popular vote in midterm elections than it did two years prior. Therefore, since Democrats won the House popular vote by 3.0 points in 2020, Republicans can roughly expect to win it by 4.4 points in 2022 if history is any guide."


(FiveThirtyEight - January 3, 2022)

Republicans held five Congressional seats going into the 2022 election cycle, but were guaranteed only three seats based on the generic party preference of voters in newly drawn Congressional districts; however, up to four new districts were potentially competitive between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 election cycle.

Congressional "incumbent" districts with Democrat voter party preferences near 50%:

2022 Congressional Districts With Democrat Party Preference
Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.

State Legislative Districts

House Democrats held a supermajority with 73 of 118 House seats going into the 2022 election cycle and newly drawn legislative maps arguably supported Democrat voter preferences in 79 House districts (click here) while Senate Democrats held an even larger supermajority percentage with 41 of 59 Senate seats going into the 2022 election cycle and newly drawn legislative maps similarly supporting Democratic voter preferences in 41 Senate districts (click here).

Although newly drawn legislative maps certainly supported the preservation of a Democrat majority in both the Illinois House and Senate, Republicans hoped to utilize the predictability of a party preference shift against the incumbent president in mid-term elections by challenging Democrats in four House districts and two Senate districts, and protecting Republican "incumbents" in nine House districts and three Senate districts.


Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.

State "incumbent" districts with voter party preferences near 50%:

Intra-Party Conflicts

Beyond the politics of Democrat vs. Republican that quickly becomes the theme after a primary, there were also internal party conflicts playing out between the primary and general election. For Democrats, the Governor appeared to again be attempting to influence leadership of the state party operations, and for Republicans, the party establishment was being threatened by factions ranging from the right-wing to the Trump-endorsed candidates.

Following the final state central committee results, we first saw Democrats wage their internal battle with weighted votes from each congressional district, which ranged from 2% to 9% in the 2021 election of Robin Kelly as Democratic Party of Illinois chair with just 51.7% of the weighted votes (note: weighted votes for the now 17 congressional districts were determined based on the 2022 Democratic primary ballots cast in each congressional district).

2021 Democratic State Central Committee Weighted Vote Chart

New Realities for Some "Incumbents"

New census maps mean new districts for every "incumbent" running for re-election. While Democrats naturally drew maps that favored more Democrat districts, most but not all Democrat incumbents in moderate districts may have felt safer long before the general election results. And while some House Republicans hoped to be insulated from defeat due in part to a mid-term election with a Democrat president, others were not so lucky.

Here's a look at 34 arguably moderate districts with a major party preference within a ten percentage point spread, comparing the incumbent's last win vs. the district's party preference.

Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.

2022 Illinois Primary Snapshots

While general election matchups between Democrat and Republican candidates deserve plenty of attention, many state and federal districts' representation are decided by the primary election. Below are snapshots of primary races that were worth watching with summary references to some relevant background, campaign affiliations, endorsements, and support:


Note: average Democrat and Republican voter preferences (i.e. winning percentage point differential between 50%) are based on elections for President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016.

Congressional District Primaries to Watch

Filed Incumbent: Open (Bobby Rush not running)


Total Pop: 753,677 

Black: 49.66% 

Asian: 1.97% 

Hispanic: 9.21%


Dem Primary Candidates:


Note: other Chicago Democrat candidates include:


Note: Suburban Democrat candidates include:

Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)


Total Pop: 753,677 

Black: 4.61% 

Asian: 6.12% 

Hispanic: 47.35%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Filed Incumbents: Rodney Davis-R & Mary Miller-R 


Total Pop: 753,677 

Black: 2.86% 

Asian: 0.74% 

Hispanic: 2.81%


State Senate District Primaries to Watch

Total Pop: 217,254 

Black: 10.37% 

Asian: 13.17% 

Hispanic: 37.93%


Total Pop: 217,315 

Black: 10.33% 

Asian: 2.38% 

Hispanic: 11.76%


Total Pop: 217,318 

Black: 16.74% 

Asian: 1.98% 

Hispanic: 13.29%


Total Pop: 217,413 

Black: 5.93% 

Asian: 9.11% 

Hispanic: 40.11%


Total Pop: 217,029 

Black: 2.06% 

Asian: 2.19% 

Hispanic: 9.04%


Filed Incumbent: Open (Jacqueline Collins-D filed for Congress 1st District)


Total Pop: 216,908 

Black: 16.54% 

Asian: 2.90% 

Hispanic: 20.14%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 217,169 

Black: 1.67% 

Asian: 6.52% 

Hispanic: 25.64%


Total Pop: 217,156 

Black: 19.59% 

Asian: 2.21% 

Hispanic: 3.02%


Total Pop: 217,224 

Black: 11.65% 

Asian: 7.63% 

Hispanic: 21.57%


Filed Incumbent: Open (John Connor-D filed for 12th Circuit Judge)


Total Pop: 217,053 

Black: 64.20% 

Asian: 0.32% 

Hispanic: 16.78%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 217,244 

Black: 12.47% 

Asian: 1.37% 

Hispanic: 5.44%


State House District Primaries to Watch

Filed Incumbent: Open (Delia Ramirez-D filed for Congress 3rd District)


Total Pop: 108,533 

Black: 12.11% 

Asian: 2.35% 

Hispanic: 56.05%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 108,689 

Black: 45.44% 

Asian: 5.81% 

Hispanic: 30.01%


Filed Incumbent: Open (Greg Harris-D not running)


Total Pop: 108,814 

Black: 11.65% 

Asian: 10.08% 

Hispanic: 15.15%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 108,709 

Black: 2.57% 

Asian: 21.58% 

Hispanic: 15.90%


Total Pop: 108,819 

Black: 9.45% 

Asian: 27.93% 

Hispanic: 15.37%


Total Pop: 108,549 

Black: 2.24% 

Asian: 8.06% 

Hispanic: 29.85%


Total Pop: 108,619 

Black: 6.29% 

Asian: 2.08% 

Hispanic: 55.72%


Total Pop: 108,619 

Black: 6.29% 

Asian: 2.08% 

Hispanic: 55.72%


Total Pop: 108,520 

Black: 58.30% 

Asian: 0.46% 

Hispanic: 7.13%


Total Pop: 108,536 

Black: 48.60% 

Asian: 0.90% 

Hispanic: 34.44%


Filed Incumbent: Open (Sam Yingling-D filed for Senate 31st District)


Total Pop: 108,565 

Black: 4.27% 

Asian: 6.36% 

Hispanic: 30.63%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Filed Incumbent: Open (Mike Halpin-D filed for Senate 36th District)


Total Pop: 108,580 

Black: 12.76% 

Asian: 2.83% 

Hispanic: 16.23%


Dem Primary Candidates:

Filed Incumbent: Open (Tom Demmer filed for State Treasurer)


Total Pop: 108,476 

Black: 2.78% 

Asian: 0.67% 

Hispanic: 14.67%


GOP Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 108,704 

Black: 2.96% 

Asian: 3.18% 

Hispanic: 57.93%


Filed Incumbent: Open (Keith Sommer-R not running)


Total Pop: 108,650 

Black: 1.96% 

Asian: 0.66% 

Hispanic: 2.57%


GOP Primary Candidates:

Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)


Total Pop: 108,525 

Black: 6.16% 

Asian: 1.46% 

Hispanic: 6.56%


GOP Primary Candidates:

Total Pop: 108,708 

Black: 2.19% 

Asian: 1.13% 

Hispanic: 3.80%


Total Pop: 108,730 

Black: 8.93% 

Asian: 2.96% 

Hispanic: 2.62%


Filed Incumbent: Open (no resident incumbent)


Total Pop: 108,658 

Black: 1.95% 

Asian: 1.76% 

Hispanic: 3.65%


GOP Primary Candidates: