2024 Elections

Staff

• Chief of Staff - Susie Wiles (2024 campaign co-chair)

• Deputy Chief of Staff - Stephen Miller (former Trump administration immigration advisor)

• Communications Director - Huyen "Steven" Chueng (2024 Trump campaign communications director)

• Press Secretary - Karoline Leavitt (2024 Trump campaign spokesperson)

Cabinet & Top Agencies

Law Enforcement & Defense

• Attorney General - Matt Gaetz (U.S. Rep. Florida) NOMINEE WITHDREW

• Attorney General - Pam Bondi (former Florida Attorney General)

  • Deputy Attorney General - Todd Blanche (lead Trump criminal defense attorney)

    • Drug Enforcement Administration Administrator - Chad Chronister (Hillsborough Florida County Sheriff)

  • FBI Director - Kash Patel (former Trump Secretary of Defense chief of staff; former Trump National Security Council senior advisor)

• Secretary of State - Marco Rubio (U.S. Sen. Florida)

• Secretary of Homeland Security - Kristi Noem (South Dakota Governor)

• Secretary of Defense - Pete Hegserth (Army Veteran & Fox News Host)

  • Secretary of the Navy - John Phelan (Rugger Management founder)

• Director of National Intelligence - Tulsi Gabbard (Army National Guard Veteran & former U.S. Rep. Hawaii)

  • CIA Director - John Ratcliffe (former Director of National Intelligence)

Finance, Trade & Domestic Administrations

• Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent (Key Square Capital Management Founder)

• Commerce Secretary - Howard Lutnick (Cantor Fitzgerald CEO; Trump transition co-chair)

• U.S. Trade Representative - Jamieson Greer (chief of state to former Trump U.S. Trade Representative)

• Director of Office of Management and Budget - Russell Vought (former OMB Director)

• Labor Secretary - Lori Chavez-DeRemer (U.S. Rep. Oregon)

• Federal Communications Commission Chair - Brendan Carr (FCC Commissioner; former FCC General Counsel)

• Federal Trade Commission Chair - Andrew Ferguson (current FTC commission)

• Education Secretary - Linda McMahon (Trump transition co-chair; former Small Business Administration Administrator)

• Health and Human Services Secretary - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (former 2024 presidential candidate; son of RFK and nephew of JFK)

• Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Administrator - Dr. Mehmet Oz (Dr. Oz TV host; former U.S. Senate Candidate-PA)

• Environmental Protection Agency Administrator - Lee Zeldin (former New York representative)

• Energy Secretary - Chris Wright (Liberty Energy CEO)

• Interior Secretary - Doug Burgum (North Dakota Governor)

• Agriculture Secretary - Brooke Rollins (former Office of American Innovation Director)

Other Domestic & Foreign Policy

• National Security Advisor - Mike Waltz (U.S. Rep. Florida)

• Deputy National Security Advisor - Alex Wong (former Trump Deputy Special Representative for North Korea)

• Senior Adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs - Massad Boulos (daughter Tiffany Trump's father-in-law)

• Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism - Sebastian Gorka (former Trump national security staffer)

• U.N. Ambassador - Elise Stefanik (U.S. Rep. New York)

• NATO Ambassador - Matthew Whitaker (former Acting Attorney General)

• Mexico Ambassador - Ronald Johnson (former U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador)

• National Institute of Health Director - Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford health policy professor)

• NASA Administrator - Jared Isaacman (point of sale company founder and first private space walk with SpaceX)

• Border Czar - Tom Homan (former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement - ICE)

• Department of Government Efficiency - Co-Directors Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy

Full Appointment List Compilations

• CBS News

• New York Times

• BBC

Overview of White House Cabinet Positions In Order of Succession

• Vice President

• Secretary of State

• Secretary of the Treasury

• Secretary of Defense

• Attorney General

• Secretary of the Interior

• Secretary of Agriculture

• Secretary of Commerce

• Acting Secretary of Labor

• Secretary of Health and Human Services

• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

• Secretary of Transportation

• Secretary of Energy

• Secretary of Education

• Secretary of Veterans Affairs

• Secretary of Homeland Security

• Chief of Staff

• Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency

• Director of National Intelligence

• United States Trade Representative

• United States Ambassador to the United Nations

• Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers

• Administrator of the Small Business Administration

• Director of the Office of Management and Budget

• Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy

• Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be another highly contested battle, with former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden once again vying for the highest office in the United States. The outcome of this election, like those before it, will likely come down to a handful of key battleground states. These states, due to their electoral college significance and shifting demographics, play a crucial role in determining the path to victory. This summary analysis delves into the importance of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Upper Midwest; North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in the Southeast; and Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest, examining their electoral college delegates, recent electoral voting history since at least 2016, and demographic data relevant to the presidential candidates.

Upper Midwest: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

• Electoral College Delegates: Collectively, these states offer a significant number of electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10). Their combined 44 electoral votes represent a substantial portion of the 270 needed to win.

• Recent Electoral History: Since 2016, these states have swung between Democratic and Republican candidates, highlighting their status as true battlegrounds. In 2016, all three states narrowly voted for Donald Trump, contributing to his victory. However, in the 2020 election, they flipped back to support Joe Biden, playing a pivotal role in his win.

• Demographics and Trends: These states have diverse populations with a mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters. Economic concerns, particularly regarding manufacturing and trade policies, have been central. Additionally, these states have seen demographic shifts, including increases in minority populations and changes in educational attainment levels, which could influence voting patterns.

Southeast: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina

• Electoral College Delegates: This region offers a hefty electoral vote count, with Florida (30), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16) being key prizes.

• Recent Electoral History: Florida has been a perennial battleground, with close margins in recent elections, including Trump’s victories in both 2016 and 2020. Georgia, traditionally a Republican stronghold, flipped to Biden in 2020, highlighting its emerging battleground status. North Carolina has remained closely contested, with Trump winning in both 2016 and 2020, but by narrow margins.

• Demographics and Trends: The Southeast has experienced significant demographic changes, including rapid population growth, increased diversity, and an influx of residents from other states. These changes have contributed to shifting political landscapes, especially in suburban areas and cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, and Miami.

Southwest: Arizona, Nevada

• Electoral College Delegates: Arizona and Nevada together contribute 17 electoral votes to the tally, with Nevada offering 6 and Arizona 11.

• Recent Electoral History: Arizona, a longtime Republican stronghold, flipped to support Biden in 2020, marking a significant shift in its political alignment. Nevada has leaned Democratic in recent elections but remains competitive.

• Demographics and Trends: Both states have seen rapid population growth and increased diversity, particularly with rising Hispanic populations that could influence election outcomes. Economic issues, healthcare, and immigration are significant concerns among the electorate.

Evolving Politics in the Upper Midwest, Southeast, and Southwest

The 2024 presidential election will likely hinge on these pivotal states, each with its unique electoral significance, shifting demographics, and recent voting history. As candidates campaign across the country, understanding the nuances of these battlegrounds will be crucial for shaping strategies and messages that resonate with a diverse and changing American electorate. The battle for the presidency will not only be a test of political will but also a reflection of the evolving American demographic landscape.

*Note: The demographic and electoral trends discussed here are based on available data up to early 2024. For the most current and detailed information, please refer to the U.S. Census Bureau and state-specific electoral commissions.

For the below analysis, district voter party preferences are based on the average percentage point spread of the winning party in eight bellwether races since 2016 (i.e. Governor 2022, Secretary of State 2022, Comptroller 2022, President 2020, Governor 2018, Attorney General 2018, President 2016, and Comptroller 2016).

State House Districts

As many as 12 state legislative House of Representative districts are arguably competitive in the 2024 general election based on voter party preferences, with half being worth deeper dives into district voter history and campaign spending, designated with asterisks below:

• House District 45 (likely hold for Democrats with incumbent not running for re-election - note: flipped by Dems in 2022)

• House District 47* (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Amy Grant, in a rematch of 2022)

• House District 48* (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro)

• House District 51 (likely hold for Democratic incumbent, Rep. Nabeela Syed)

• House District 52* (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Marty McLaughlin)

• House District 63 (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Reick)

• House District 66 (likely "comfortable" hold for Democratic incumbent, Rep. Suzanne Ness)

• House District 79 (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Jackie Haas)

• House District 91* (likely hold for Democratic incumbent, Rep. Sharon Chung)

• House District 104* (likely hold for Republican incumbent, Rep. Brandun Schweizer)

• House District 112 (likely "comfortable" hold for Democratic incumbent, Rep. Katie Stuart)

• House District 114* (potential flip to Democrats - note: flipped by Republicans in 2022 with surprise defeat of incumbents running in a rematch of 2022)

Of these competitive House races, the arguably most vulnerable for each party are House District 91 for Democrats and House District 114 for Republicans.

State Senate Districts

There is really only one arguably competitive State Senate race in the 2024 general election; however, voter party preferences in several other Senate districts this election cycle will likely confirm what already appears to be an exciting 2026 election cycle for the State Senate.

• Senate District 40 (likely "comfortable" hold for Democratic incumbent, Sen. Patrick Joyce, in a rematch of 2022)

For 2026 forecasting of competitive Senate races, here are several other Senate Districts and related House Districts worth paying attention to regarding 2024 voter preferences:

•  Senate District 24 (House Districts 47 & 48)

• Senate District 26 (House Districts 51 & 52)

• Senate District 33 (House Districts 65 & 66)

• Senate District 36 (House Districts 71 & 72)

• Senate District 38 (House Districts 75 & 76)

• Senate District 41 (House Districts 81 & #82)

• Senate District 48 (House Districts 95 & 96)

• Senate District 56 (House Districts 111 & 112)

Congressional Districts

There is similarly only one arguably competitive Illinois Congressional race in the 2024 general election, U.S. House District 17 (like hold for Democratic incumbent, U.S. Rep. Eric Sorensen)

To see more detail on the district voter numbers and demographics, click on the 2024 interactive Illinois election map link below or use the embedded map on the page (note: the legend is accessible through the top left box slide)