2024 Elections
How an Open Convention Will Work for the Democratic Nomination
Nominating Process:
The official nominating process at the convention involves formal speeches and nominations made by delegates. Each candidate must be formally placed into nomination by delegates, who present the candidate's credentials and support.
Reference: 2024 Call for Convention, Page 12, Section III.C.
Voting Procedures:
The nomination vote is conducted through a roll call of the states. Each state announces its delegate votes, which are then tallied to determine if a candidate has received the necessary majority.
Reference: 2024 Call for Convention, Page 15, Section IV.B.
Majority Requirement:
To secure the nomination, a candidate must receive a majority of the delegate votes. If no candidate achieves a majority on the first ballot, subsequent ballots are conducted until a majority is reached.
Reference: 2024 Call for Convention, Page 16, Section IV.C.
2024 Democratic Convention Regulations
Roll Call Voting:
Detailed procedures for the roll call vote, including how votes are recorded and announced, are specified. This ensures transparency and accuracy in the voting process.
Reference: 2024 Democratic Convention Regulations, Page 18, Section 5.4.
Delegates' Role and Release:
If a candidate withdraws, delegates pledged to that candidate are released to support other candidates. This provision allows for flexibility and ensures that delegates can realign their support in accordance with changing circumstances.
Reference: 2024 Democratic Convention Regulations, Page 20, Section 6.2.
Handling Withdrawals:
The regulations provide guidelines on managing the withdrawal of a candidate, including how to reallocate delegates and conduct additional ballots if necessary. This ensures the nominating process can proceed smoothly despite unexpected changes.
Reference: 2024 Democratic Convention Regulations, Page 22, Section 7.1.
CLICK HERE for a great overview of the open convention process in a POLITICO interview released prior to President Biden's official withdrawal.
Who Will Kamala Harris Choose for Vice President & Does it Matter?
While the convention process would still have to play out in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Deomcratic Presidential Nominee, President Biden's endorsement will certainly put her in a strong position, so the question then turns to who the new Vice President candidate will be...
How to select a Vice President and whether it matters is the subject of speculative debate, but a look at FiveThirtyEight's analysis over the past few election cycles provides some insights into potential factors:
Presidential nominee's personal preferences (e.g. opting for someone whom they connect with and feel would be a strong partner in governing)
Broader dynamics of the party (e.g. ideological and/or demographic balance)
Electability, real or imagined (e.g. arguable home state bumps of 2-3%)
Impact on Congress (e.g. does the selection positively or negatively impact competitive U.S. Senate or U.S. Representative races)
FiveThirtyEight References:
How Will Biden Choose His Running Mate? - March 31, 2020
Guide To Veepstakes Speculation - March 31, 2016
The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect - April 23, 2012
U.S. Presidents Not Seeking or Losing a Second Term
Did Not Run for a Second Term:
James Polk (1845-1849): Chose not to seek re-election and retired after one term.
James Buchanan (1857-1861): Did not seek re-election, largely due to the contentious political climate leading up to the Civil War.
Rutherford B. Hayes (1877-1881): Pledged to serve only one term and did not seek re-election.
Calvin Coolidge (1923-1929): Chose not to run for a second full term after finishing Warren G. Harding's term and serving one of his own.
Harry Truman (1945-1953): Withdrew after losing the first primary in his re-election (note: took office following Franklin Roosevelt's death months after his third re-election).
Lyndon Johnson (1963-1969): Withdrew after the first primary with a surprise announcement at the end of a presidential address on the Vietnam War (note: took office following the November 1963 assasination of John F. Kennedy).
Joseph Biden (2021-2025): Withdrew less than one month before the nominating convention after party pressure following a poor presidential debate.
Lost Re-election:
John Adams (1797-1801): Lost to Thomas Jefferson in the election of 1800.
John Quincy Adams (1825-1829): Lost to Andrew Jackson in the election of 1828.
Martin Van Buren (1837-1841): Lost to William Henry Harrison in the election of 1840.
Grover Cleveland (1885-1889): Lost re-election in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison but was later re-elected in 1892.
Benjamin Harrison (1889-1893): Lost to Grover Cleveland in the election of 1892.
William Howard Taft (1909-1913): Lost to Woodrow Wilson in the election of 1912.
Herbert Hoover (1929-1933): Lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in the election of 1932.
Gerald Ford (1974-1977): Lost to Jimmy Carter in the election of 1976.
Jimmy Carter (1977-1981): Lost to Ronald Reagan in the election of 1980.
George H. W. Bush (1989-1993): Lost to Bill Clinton in the election of 1992.
Donald Trump (2017-2021): Lost to Joe Biden in the election of 2020.
Died in Office During Their First Term
William Henry Harrison (1841): Died of pneumonia just a month after taking office.
Zachary Taylor (1849-1850): Died of illness 16 months into his term.
James A. Garfield (1881): Assassinated and died after six months in office.
Warren G. Harding (1921-1923): Died of a heart attack during his third year in office.
John F. Kennedy (1961-1963): Assassinated in November 1963, during his third year in office.
Pivotal States of the 2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be another highly contested battle, with former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden once again vying for the highest office in the United States. The outcome of this election, like those before it, will likely come down to a handful of key battleground states. These states, due to their electoral college significance and shifting demographics, play a crucial role in determining the path to victory. This summary analysis delves into the importance of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Upper Midwest; North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in the Southeast; and Nevada and Arizona in the West, examining their electoral college delegates, recent electoral voting history since at least 2016, and demographic data relevant to the presidential candidates.
Upper Midwest: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
Electoral College Delegates: Collectively, these states offer a significant number of electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10). Their combined 44 electoral votes represent a substantial portion of the 270 needed to win.
Recent Electoral History: Since 2016, these states have swung between Democratic and Republican candidates, highlighting their status as true battlegrounds. In 2016, all three states narrowly voted for Donald Trump, contributing to his victory. However, in the 2020 election, they flipped back to support Joe Biden, playing a pivotal role in his win.
Demographics and Trends: These states have diverse populations with a mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters. Economic concerns, particularly regarding manufacturing and trade policies, have been central. Additionally, these states have seen demographic shifts, including increases in minority populations and changes in educational attainment levels, which could influence voting patterns.
Southeast: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida
Electoral College Delegates: This region offers a hefty electoral vote count, with Florida (30), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16) being key prizes.
Recent Electoral History: Florida has been a perennial battleground, with close margins in recent elections, including Trump’s victories in both 2016 and 2020. Georgia, traditionally a Republican stronghold, flipped to Biden in 2020, highlighting its emerging battleground status. North Carolina has remained closely contested, with Trump winning in both 2016 and 2020, but by narrow margins.
Demographics and Trends: The Southeast has experienced significant demographic changes, including rapid population growth, increased diversity, and an influx of residents from other states. These changes have contributed to shifting political landscapes, especially in suburban areas and cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, and Miami.
West: Nevada, Arizona
Electoral College Delegates: Nevada and Arizona together contribute 17 electoral votes to the tally, with Nevada offering 6 and Arizona 11.
Recent Electoral History: Nevada has leaned Democratic in recent elections but remains competitive. Arizona, a longtime Republican stronghold, flipped to support Biden in 2020, marking a significant shift in its political alignment.
Demographics and Trends: Both states have seen rapid population growth and increased diversity, particularly with rising Hispanic populations that could influence election outcomes. Economic issues, healthcare, and immigration are significant concerns among the electorate.
Evolving Politics in the Upper Midwest, Southeast, and West
The 2024 presidential election will likely hinge on these pivotal states, each with its unique electoral significance, shifting demographics, and recent voting history. As candidates campaign across the country, understanding the nuances of these battlegrounds will be crucial for shaping strategies and messages that resonate with a diverse and changing American electorate. The battle for the presidency will not only be a test of political will but also a reflection of the evolving American demographic landscape.
*Note: The demographic and electoral trends discussed here are based on available data up to early 2024. For the most current and detailed information, please refer to the U.S. Census Bureau and state-specific electoral commissions.