2020 State Election Predictions
2020 Timeline & Predictions
Illinois State Board of Elections Timeline for 2020
What does it look like for just over 400 candidates to file their petitions on the first day? (courtesy of the Illinois State Board of Elections)
Federal litigation initiated by Illinois Libertarian and Green parties sought a lower threshold for access to the ballot, and in light of COVID-19 restrictions, the request was approved by the lower federal court. Although the Illinois State Board of Elections initially accepted the court's holding, subsequent actions by the agency led to the candidate deadline being moved earlier to July 20th with further appeals filed regarding the ultimate threshold for petition signatures, which was reduced from 25,000 to 2,500 by the lower court. The federal appeals court subsequently upheld the reduced petition signature threshold of 2,500.
Voters' Party Preference as an Indicator of Who Wins
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Early Predictions on Which Districts to Watch in 2020 & 2022
There was an arguable over-performance by the Democratic legislative candidates who won in Senate Districts 21 and 24, and House Districts 45, 51, and 76 when comparing the districts' voter preference for Governor and Attorney General. Based on a similar comparison, the Democratic legislative candidates who lost in Senate District 36 and House District 97 arguably under-performed. The potential vulnerability seen with these districts' recent voter preference highlights the offices as targets in the upcoming legislative session.
The Democratic legislative candidates who won in House Districts 48, 49, 53, and 61 performed consistent with the districts' "blue wave" voter preference for Governor and Attorney General; this may include the Democratic candidate who won in House District 81 but arguably under-performed. Either way, "wave" win candidates are also worth watching in anticipation of subsequent election cycles.
Click here for the numbers behind the analysis, with tabs for each category below.
Campaign Spending as an Indicator of Who Wins
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Where Opportunity was Missed Last Election Cycle
At the end of the 2018 election, over $900,000 was left in the eleven individual campaign coffers of Republican candidates who lost a race that resulted in the legislative office switching to Democratic control. Five of those candidates had over $100,000 each in "cash on hand" left: Senate Districts 21 (Connelly - $199,626.85) and 24 (Nybo - $208,192.63), and House Districts 45 (Winger - $108,333.64), 48 (Breen - $117,754.29), and 81 (Olsen - $101,407.93), with an honorable mention to House District 51 (Walsh - $72,382.33).
Based on the money flowing throughout the state Democratic party in the election cycle, it is not surprising that nearly all Democratic candidates in targeted races significantly outspent their Republican opponent; however, it should be noted that where Democratic spending in the final month of the election was at or below the Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate arguably underperformed when compared to how voters in that district preferred the Democratic candidate for Governor and Attorney General.
Click here for the numbers behind the analysis, with tabs for each category below.